Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TOR: 53.5%

BOS: 46.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.29

BOS: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 38%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	0	0.88
1	BOS	10	0	0.44
2	TOR	14	0	0.56
2	BOS	19	1	1.51
3	TOR	12	2	2.65
3	BOS	14	1	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7