Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2025-01-04 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 69.3%
MTL: 30.7%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.78
MTL: 2.47
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 30-6-6 | 0.920 SV% | 2.07 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | COL | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.951 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.750 | 0.846 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • COL at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | MTL 7 - 3 COL | MTL | COL |
| 2025-11-29 | COL 7 - 2 MTL | COL | COL |
| 2025-03-22 | MTL 4 - 5 COL | COL | COL |
| 2025-01-04 | COL 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | COL |
| 2024-03-26 | COL 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:01 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:25 | COL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | COL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 69.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.8 - 2.5
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