Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (75% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 75.2%

MTL: 24.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.04

MTL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	16	0	0.72
1	MTL	8	0	0.47
2	COL	11	0	0.68
2	MTL	10	0	0.55
3	COL	13	1	1.00
3	MTL	14	0	0.86
4	COL	4	0	0.27
4	MTL	4	0	0.44
5	COL	2	0	0.12
5	MTL	2	2	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 75.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.0 - 2.8