Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

VGK: 64.6%

BUF: 35.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.60

BUF: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs BUF: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	2	1.72
1	BUF	9	0	0.43
2	VGK	15	0	0.64
2	BUF	11	0	0.53
3	VGK	9	1	0.68
3	BUF	24	0	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5