New York Islanders at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-01-05 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 5 New York Islanders

Win Probability

BOS: 41.5%

NYI: 58.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.24

NYI: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	37	32	5	86.5%	2.88	2	-2.12
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	26	4	86.7%	2.92	4	-1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	2	1.02
1	NYI	17	2	1.37
2	BOS	10	1	0.74
2	NYI	28	0	1.02
3	BOS	8	1	0.73
3	NYI	13	0	0.30
4	BOS	5	0	0.43
4	NYI	1	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 5 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1