Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-01-05 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

CAR: 65.6%

PIT: 34.4%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.33

PIT: 1.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

CAR

D. Tokarski

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	D. Tokarski	19	16	3	84.2%	1.61	0	-1.39
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	31	27	4	87.1%	3.22	3	-0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • CAR at home vs PIT: 9-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	PIT 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	PIT
2026-03-18	CAR 6 - 5 PIT	CAR	CAR
2026-03-10	CAR 5 - 4 PIT	CAR	CAR
2025-12-30	PIT 5 - 1 CAR	PIT	PIT
2025-01-05	CAR 4 - 3 PIT	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	18	1	0.83
1	PIT	11	0	0.62
2	CAR	19	1	1.16
2	PIT	9	0	0.48
3	CAR	14	0	0.63
3	PIT	11	0	0.51
4	CAR	3	1	0.59
4	PIT	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.0