Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-01-05 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 45.5%

TBL: 54.5%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.77

TBL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	37	36	1	97.3%	3.12	1	2.12
TBL	Jonas Johansson	26	22	4	84.6%	3.48	2	-0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • ANA at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	TBL
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	16	1	1.11
1	TBL	11	1	0.69
2	ANA	12	0	0.71
2	TBL	25	0	1.30
3	ANA	8	1	1.67
3	TBL	21	0	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2