Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-01-05 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

ANA: 50.4%

TBL: 49.6%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.87

TBL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • ANA at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	ANA
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	16	1	1.11
1	TBL	11	1	0.69
2	ANA	12	0	0.71
2	TBL	25	0	1.30
3	ANA	8	1	1.67
3	TBL	21	0	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1