Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-01-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.1%

WSH: 51.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.08

WSH: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	32	28	4	87.5%	3.49	2	-0.51
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	31	26	5	83.9%	4.71	3	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs WSH: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.90
1	WSH	10	0	0.67
2	BUF	15	1	1.14
2	WSH	12	0	0.46
3	BUF	8	0	0.62
3	WSH	17	1	0.93
4	BUF	5	0	0.39
4	WSH	3	0	0.32
5	BUF	4	2	1.65
5	WSH	4	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5