Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-01-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 47.8%

WSH: 52.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.09

WSH: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.90
1	WSH	10	0	0.67
2	BUF	15	1	1.14
2	WSH	12	0	0.46
3	BUF	8	0	0.62
3	WSH	17	1	0.93
4	BUF	5	0	0.39
4	WSH	3	0	0.32
5	BUF	4	2	1.65
5	WSH	4	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3