Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-06 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

MTL: 55.2%

VAN: 44.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.27

VAN: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	20	16	4	80.0%	3.09	2	-0.91
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	24	19	5	79.2%	3.34	2	-1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • MTL at home vs VAN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MTL 6 - 3 VAN	MTL	MTL
2025-10-25	VAN 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-11	VAN 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	VAN
2025-01-06	MTL 5 - 4 VAN	MTL	MTL
2024-03-21	VAN 4 - 1 MTL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	1	0.89
1	VAN	7	0	0.39
2	MTL	13	0	0.96
2	VAN	13	1	1.59
3	MTL	14	1	1.27
3	VAN	10	1	1.10
4	MTL	2	0	0.22
4	VAN	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9