Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 43.9%

OTT: 56.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.82

OTT: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs OTT: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	21	1	1.30
1	OTT	13	0	0.61
2	DET	12	0	0.23
2	OTT	19	1	1.02
3	DET	13	1	0.99
3	OTT	12	0	0.72
4	DET	3	0	0.37
4	OTT	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2