Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 43.5%

OTT: 56.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.84

OTT: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.2

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 37%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	33	31	2	93.9%	2.45	1	0.45
OTT	Anton Forsberg	33	30	3	90.9%	2.90	2	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DET at home vs OTT: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	DET 5 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	21	1	1.30
1	OTT	13	0	0.61
2	DET	12	0	0.23
2	OTT	19	1	1.02
3	DET	13	1	0.99
3	OTT	12	0	0.72
4	DET	3	0	0.37
4	OTT	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2