Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 52.4%

CBJ: 47.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.46

CBJ: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	27	5	84.4%	3.63	3	-1.37
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	24	21	3	87.5%	1.74	0	-1.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PIT at home vs CBJ: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2025-03-21	PIT 6 - 3 CBJ	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	6	0	0.18
1	CBJ	8	1	0.62
2	PIT	18	0	0.63
2	CBJ	15	0	0.50
3	PIT	11	0	0.53
3	CBJ	17	0	0.62
4	PIT	4	0	0.33
4	CBJ	2	0	0.05
5	PIT	1	0	0.07
5	CBJ	3	2	1.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9