Vancouver Canucks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-01-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

WSH: 61.2%

VAN: 38.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.47

VAN: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	31	30	1	96.8%	3.46	3	2.46
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	18	16	2	88.9%	3.07	1	1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WSH at home vs VAN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	VAN 4 - 3 WSH	VAN	WSH
2025-10-19	WSH 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	WSH
2025-01-25	VAN 2 - 1 WSH	VAN	VAN
2025-01-08	WSH 2 - 1 VAN	WSH	WSH
2024-03-16	VAN 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	1.02
1	VAN	8	1	0.77
2	WSH	11	0	0.64
2	VAN	28	2	2.07
3	WSH	8	0	0.63
3	VAN	11	0	0.54
4	WSH	6	1	0.77
4	VAN	2	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7