Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 60.7%

BUF: 39.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.46

BUF: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • OTT at home vs BUF: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	0	1.11
1	BUF	9	0	0.83
2	OTT	15	0	0.72
2	BUF	12	0	0.57
3	OTT	21	1	0.87
3	BUF	6	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0