Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TBL: 60.6%

BOS: 39.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.93

BOS: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 37%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs BOS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	1	1.28
1	BOS	14	0	0.62
2	TBL	18	0	1.25
2	BOS	13	0	0.76
3	TBL	12	2	2.26
3	BOS	20	0	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.9 - 2.7