New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 46.9%

NJD: 53.1%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.74

NJD: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	23	21	2	91.3%	3.70	3	1.70
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	32	29	3	90.6%	2.45	1	-0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NYR at home vs NJD: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	NYR 4 - 1 NJD	NYR	NJD
2026-03-18	NYR 3 - 6 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-03-07	NJD 6 - 3 NYR	NJD	NJD
2025-04-05	NJD 4 - 0 NYR	NJD	NJD
2025-01-09	NYR 3 - 2 NJD	NYR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	10	0	0.24
1	NJD	13	1	1.08
2	NYR	11	1	0.92
2	NJD	13	1	1.18
3	NYR	23	0	0.87
3	NJD	11	0	1.04
4	NYR	3	0	0.42
4	NJD	3	1	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4