Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

PHI: 49.3%

DAL: 50.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.16

DAL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • PHI at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	PHI 2 - 1 DAL	PHI	DAL
2025-11-15	DAL 5 - 1 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-03-22	DAL 3 - 2 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-01-09	PHI 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-01-18	PHI 5 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	18	1	1.01
1	DAL	14	1	1.00
2	PHI	10	0	0.51
2	DAL	14	0	0.90
3	PHI	14	0	0.82
3	DAL	8	1	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2