Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-01-09 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 41.7%
EDM: 58.3%
Expected Goals
PIT: 2.79
EDM: 3.12
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 34%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
| Stat | PIT | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.837 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.773 | 0.811 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs EDM: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | EDM 2 - 6 PIT | PIT | EDM |
| 2025-12-16 | PIT 4 - 6 EDM | EDM | PIT |
| 2025-01-09 | PIT 5 - 3 EDM | PIT | EDM |
| 2024-10-25 | EDM 4 - 0 PIT | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-03-10 | PIT 0 - 4 EDM | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:19 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 07:22 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 09:46 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 12:33 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 13:41 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:42 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 10:58 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 19:15 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 2.8 - 3.1
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.