Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 44.1%

EDM: 55.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.05

EDM: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs EDM: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	EDM 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	EDM
2025-12-16	PIT 4 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-09	PIT 5 - 3 EDM	PIT	EDM
2024-10-25	EDM 4 - 0 PIT	EDM	EDM
2024-03-10	PIT 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	2	1.65
1	EDM	11	0	0.71
2	PIT	10	0	0.33
2	EDM	30	0	1.43
3	PIT	12	3	2.45
3	EDM	19	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5