Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

CAR: 61.6%

TOR: 38.4%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.21

TOR: 2.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	33	30	3	90.9%	3.27	1	0.27
TOR	Joseph Woll	34	28	6	82.4%	5.05	3	-0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CAR at home vs TOR: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	TOR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	19	0	1.04
1	TOR	19	0	0.91
2	CAR	24	2	2.41
2	TOR	11	1	1.07
3	CAR	20	1	1.60
3	TOR	19	0	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.3