New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 55.8%

NYI: 44.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.11

NYI: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs NYI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	0.61
1	NYI	12	0	0.47
2	VGK	18	0	0.65
2	NYI	10	0	0.73
3	VGK	15	0	0.63
3	NYI	14	1	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8