Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-01-10 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 45.9%

MTL: 54.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.92

MTL: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	1	1.00
1	MTL	9	1	0.99
2	WSH	10	0	0.74
2	MTL	22	1	1.98
3	WSH	13	1	0.76
3	MTL	14	2	1.11
4	WSH	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	3	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2