Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 60.8%

BOS: 39.2%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.53

BOS: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	18	14	4	77.8%	2.51	1	-1.49
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	43	40	3	93.0%	5.67	3	2.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • FLA at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	FLA
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	24	1	1.23
1	BOS	7	0	0.32
2	FLA	23	1	1.83
2	BOS	8	0	0.62
3	FLA	27	1	2.09
3	BOS	10	1	1.25
4	FLA	5	0	0.51
4	BOS	3	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2