Seattle Kraken at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 57.3%

SEA: 42.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.35

SEA: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	23	6	79.3%	3.18	2	-2.82
SEA	Joey Daccord	35	33	2	94.3%	2.42	1	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs SEA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	BUF 3 - 2 SEA	BUF	BUF
2025-12-14	SEA 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-20	SEA 6 - 4 BUF	SEA	BUF
2025-01-11	BUF 2 - 6 SEA	SEA	BUF
2024-03-18	SEA 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	24	0	0.92
1	SEA	9	0	0.57
2	BUF	16	1	0.98
2	SEA	22	0	0.97
3	BUF	16	0	0.52
3	SEA	12	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0