Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 61.1%

VAN: 38.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.22

VAN: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs VAN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	VAN
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	1	1.03
1	VAN	13	1	0.86
2	TOR	12	0	0.32
2	VAN	10	1	1.05
3	TOR	6	0	0.15
3	VAN	6	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1