Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

MTL: 44.0%

DAL: 56.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.00

DAL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs DAL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	0	0.44
1	DAL	18	2	1.24
2	MTL	18	1	1.27
2	DAL	10	2	0.90
3	MTL	12	0	0.51
3	DAL	9	0	0.64
4	MTL	2	0	0.26
4	DAL	5	0	0.71
5	MTL	3	0	0.24
5	DAL	2	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1