Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2025-01-11 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 58.2%
TBL: 41.8%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.24
TBL: 2.31
Total Goals
Median: 4.2
Over 5.5: 34%
Over 6.5: 22%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 23-19-1 | 0.883 SV% | 3.07 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | NJD | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.873 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.792 | 0.905 |
| GAA | 3.32 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | NJD 4 - 8 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-18 | TBL 5 - 1 NJD | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-11 | TBL 3 - 5 NJD | NJD | TBL |
| 2025-01-11 | NJD 3 - 2 TBL | NJD | NJD |
| 2024-11-16 | TBL 4 - 0 NJD | TBL | NJD |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:10 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 09:57 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 15:16 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 08:05 | NJD | Goal |
| 4 | 03:19 | NJD | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.2 - 2.3
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