Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

NJD: 54.3%

TBL: 45.7%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.36

TBL: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	25	23	2	92.0%	2.19	1	0.19
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	23	3	88.5%	3.28	1	0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	TBL
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	22	0	1.38
1	TBL	11	0	0.48
2	NJD	15	0	0.95
2	TBL	13	0	0.75
3	NJD	4	0	0.25
3	TBL	13	1	0.92
4	NJD	6	1	0.72
4	TBL	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9