Anaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 0 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

PHI: 70.4%

ANA: 29.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.88

ANA: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	22	22	0	100.0%	1.21	0	1.21
ANA	John Gibson	30	24	6	80.0%	3.21	8	-2.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • PHI at home vs ANA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	ANA 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-06	PHI 5 - 2 ANA	PHI	PHI
2025-01-11	PHI 6 - 0 ANA	PHI	PHI
2024-12-28	ANA 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-11-10	ANA 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	18	2	0.94
1	ANA	8	0	0.23
2	PHI	9	2	0.67
2	ANA	9	0	0.14
3	PHI	16	4	1.60
3	ANA	14	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 0 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.9 - 2.7