Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 0 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 38.7%

COL: 61.3%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.51

COL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	22	0	100.0%	1.78	1	1.78
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	29	26	3	89.7%	2.90	1	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WPG at home vs COL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	COL 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	COL
2026-03-26	WPG 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-14	WPG 3 - 1 COL	WPG	COL
2025-12-19	COL 3 - 2 WPG	COL	COL
2025-01-22	COL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	0.73
1	COL	19	0	0.76
2	WPG	16	0	1.19
2	COL	6	0	0.27
3	WPG	8	1	0.98
3	COL	12	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 0 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.5 - 3.3