Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

NSH: 60.2%

WSH: 39.8%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.34

WSH: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	16	12	4	75.0%	3.02	2	-0.98
WSH	Logan Thompson	33	32	1	97.0%	3.46	2	2.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NSH at home vs WSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	WSH 4 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-11	NSH 3 - 2 WSH	NSH	WSH
2025-01-11	NSH 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	NSH
2024-11-06	WSH 3 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2023-12-30	WSH 2 - 3 NSH	NSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	14	1	1.26
1	WSH	6	0	0.22
2	NSH	18	0	1.17
2	WSH	10	0	0.68
3	NSH	16	1	1.03
3	WSH	13	2	2.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Nashville Predators 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1