New York Islanders at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 2 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 55.6%

NYI: 44.4%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.20

NYI: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

UTA

Connor Ingram - 9-8-4 | 0.882 SV% | 3.27 GAA

NYI

Marcus Hogberg - 0-0-0 | 0.714 SV% | 8.90 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Connor Ingram	32	30	2	93.8%	3.11	4	1.11
NYI	Marcus Hogberg	22	21	1	95.5%	2.04	0	1.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs NYI: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	NYI 2 - 7 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-11-14	UTA 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	UTA
2025-01-11	UTA 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	UTA
2024-10-10	NYI 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	7	0	0.14
1	NYI	17	1	1.16
2	UTA	15	0	1.19
2	NYI	7	0	0.51
3	UTA	12	0	0.71
3	NYI	16	3	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7