New York Rangers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-11 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 56.7%

NYR: 43.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.41

NYR: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	26	24	2	92.3%	2.16	1	0.16
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	30	29	1	96.7%	3.01	3	2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs NYR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-07	NYR 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-18	VGK 3 - 2 NYR	VGK	VGK
2025-02-02	NYR 4 - 2 VGK	NYR	VGK
2025-01-11	VGK 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	VGK
2024-01-26	NYR 2 - 5 VGK	VGK	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	0	0.44
1	NYR	21	0	0.86
2	VGK	16	2	1.49
2	NYR	19	1	1.09
3	VGK	17	1	1.07
3	NYR	6	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7