Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-01-12 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 44.8%
DAL: 55.2%
Expected Goals
OTT: 2.88
DAL: 2.93
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | OTT | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.847 | 0.931 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs DAL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | DAL 6 - 1 OTT | DAL | OTT |
| 2025-11-11 | OTT 2 - 3 DAL | DAL | OTT |
| 2025-01-12 | OTT 3 - 2 DAL | OTT | DAL |
| 2025-01-02 | DAL 4 - 2 OTT | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-02-22 | OTT 4 - 1 DAL | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:31 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:14 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 03:53 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 00:21 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:07 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.9 - 2.9
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