Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-12 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

OTT: 60.4%

DAL: 39.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.18

DAL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	OTT
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.70
1	DAL	10	1	0.85
2	OTT	19	1	1.82
2	DAL	12	1	0.74
3	OTT	13	3	1.81
3	DAL	16	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2