Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-12 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

OTT: 52.1%

DAL: 47.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.98

DAL: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	26	24	2	92.3%	2.31	3	0.31
DAL	Casey DeSmith	27	24	3	88.9%	4.33	4	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	DAL
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.70
1	DAL	10	1	0.85
2	OTT	19	1	1.82
2	DAL	12	1	0.74
3	OTT	13	3	1.81
3	DAL	16	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8