Anaheim Ducks at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-01-12 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 74.3%

ANA: 25.7%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.87

ANA: 2.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	20	17	3	85.0%	1.81	2	-1.19
ANA	Lukas Dostal	37	35	2	94.6%	2.96	2	0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs ANA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	CAR 5 - 2 ANA	CAR	CAR
2025-10-16	ANA 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-03-23	ANA 2 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-01-12	CAR 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	CAR
2024-01-11	CAR 6 - 3 ANA	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	15	0	0.28
1	ANA	8	2	0.90
2	CAR	19	0	1.00
2	ANA	7	0	0.30
3	CAR	21	2	1.65
3	ANA	10	0	0.50
4	CAR	1	0	0.04
4	ANA	2	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.9 - 2.6