Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-01-13 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 50.0%

FLA: 50.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.04

FLA: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	23	20	3	87.0%	1.88	1	-1.12
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	29	25	4	86.2%	2.76	2	-1.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs FLA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	FLA 2 - 4 PHI	PHI	FLA
2025-10-13	PHI 5 - 2 FLA	PHI	FLA
2025-10-09	FLA 2 - 1 PHI	FLA	FLA
2025-01-13	PHI 4 - 3 FLA	PHI	FLA
2024-12-05	PHI 5 - 7 FLA	FLA	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	9	0	0.50
1	FLA	10	1	0.84
2	PHI	15	0	0.96
2	FLA	8	0	0.45
3	PHI	10	2	1.30
3	FLA	13	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1