Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-01-13 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 5 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

CHI: 42.1%

CGY: 57.9%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.12

CGY: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	36	31	5	86.1%	2.60	0	-2.40
CGY	Dustin Wolf	25	23	2	92.0%	2.09	1	0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CHI at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	CHI 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-11-18	CHI 5 - 2 CGY	CHI	CGY
2025-11-07	CGY 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	CGY
2025-01-13	CHI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-12-21	CGY 6 - 4 CHI	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	13	0	0.56
1	CGY	17	0	0.70
2	CHI	14	1	0.91
2	CGY	20	0	1.24
3	CHI	13	0	0.62
3	CGY	17	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2