Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

BOS: 53.5%

TBL: 46.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.98

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	0	1.12
1	TBL	16	0	0.62
2	BOS	15	3	1.16
2	TBL	24	1	1.47
3	BOS	9	2	1.13
3	TBL	26	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3