Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

TOR: 46.5%

DAL: 53.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.00

DAL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TOR at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.60
1	DAL	16	2	1.06
2	TOR	19	1	0.83
2	DAL	15	2	1.09
3	TOR	14	1	1.03
3	DAL	7	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3