Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 5 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NSH: 48.0%

VGK: 52.0%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.00

VGK: 3.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Justus Annunen	22	19	3	86.4%	1.81	0	-1.19
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	23	18	5	78.3%	4.12	5	-0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NSH at home vs VGK: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	NSH 4 - 1 VGK	NSH	VGK
2026-01-17	VGK 7 - 2 NSH	VGK	VGK
2025-12-31	VGK 2 - 4 NSH	NSH	VGK
2025-04-12	VGK 5 - 3 NSH	VGK	VGK
2025-03-29	NSH 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	18	1	1.52
1	VGK	3	0	0.11
2	NSH	13	0	0.86
2	VGK	11	0	0.73
3	NSH	5	4	1.74
3	VGK	20	0	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Nashville Predators 5 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.6