Montreal Canadiens at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-01-14 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 62.7%

MTL: 37.3%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.27

MTL: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	27	22	5	81.5%	3.48	4	-1.52
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	25	22	3	88.0%	3.50	2	0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • UTA at home vs MTL: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	UTA 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	UTA
2025-11-08	MTL 6 - 2 UTA	MTL	UTA
2025-01-14	UTA 3 - 5 MTL	MTL	UTA
2024-11-26	MTL 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	21	2	2.04
1	MTL	5	0	0.40
2	UTA	10	0	0.72
2	MTL	22	3	2.21
3	UTA	14	0	0.73
3	MTL	15	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8