Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-01-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.8%

CAR: 51.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.02

CAR: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CAR

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	37	35	2	94.6%	3.48	3	1.48
CAR	D. Tokarski	25	21	4	84.0%	3.98	3	-0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs CAR: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	CAR 2 - 1 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-11-23	BUF 4 - 1 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-11-08	CAR 6 - 3 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-04-08	BUF 3 - 0 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-02-27	CAR 5 - 2 BUF	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	1	1.21
1	CAR	14	0	0.64
2	BUF	20	0	1.17
2	CAR	27	1	1.18
3	BUF	3	2	1.60
3	CAR	22	2	1.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5