New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 45.1%

NJD: 54.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.23

NJD: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 41%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	24	21	3	87.5%	2.81	3	-0.19
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	41	37	4	90.2%	2.55	2	-1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs NJD: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	NJD
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	NJD
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	NJD
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	1	0.61
1	NJD	11	1	0.53
2	TOR	15	0	0.91
2	NJD	9	0	0.66
3	TOR	24	1	0.92
3	NJD	13	2	1.50
4	TOR	1	0	0.10
4	NJD	2	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0