Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 1 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

OTT: 49.6%

WSH: 50.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.41

WSH: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	26	25	1	96.2%	2.06	0	1.06
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	24	0	100.0%	2.01	1	2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • OTT at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.78
1	WSH	9	0	0.62
2	OTT	15	1	0.80
2	WSH	7	0	0.22
3	OTT	9	0	0.39
3	WSH	17	0	0.85
4	OTT	1	0	0.04
4	WSH	4	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 0 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.4 - 3.1