Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 1 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 57.0%

WSH: 43.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.47

WSH: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs WSH: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	OTT
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.78
1	WSH	9	0	0.62
2	OTT	15	1	0.80
2	WSH	7	0	0.22
3	OTT	9	0	0.39
3	WSH	17	0	0.85
4	OTT	1	0	0.04
4	WSH	4	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 0 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.5 - 2.8