Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

TBL: 72.8%

ANA: 27.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.80

ANA: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	38	35	3	92.1%	2.49	0	-0.51
ANA	Lukas Dostal	38	34	4	89.5%	5.92	7	1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs ANA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	TBL
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	3	1.72
1	ANA	13	0	0.43
2	TBL	18	3	2.17
2	ANA	14	0	0.63
3	TBL	14	0	1.03
3	ANA	18	0	0.89
4	TBL	1	0	0.05
4	ANA	3	0	0.32
5	TBL	3	1	0.94
5	ANA	3	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9