Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

TBL: 70.8%

ANA: 29.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.68

ANA: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs ANA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	ANA
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	3	1.72
1	ANA	13	0	0.43
2	TBL	18	3	2.17
2	ANA	14	0	0.63
3	TBL	14	0	1.03
3	ANA	18	0	0.89
4	TBL	1	0	0.05
4	ANA	3	0	0.32
5	TBL	3	1	0.94
5	ANA	3	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.6