Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

NYI: 44.2%

PHI: 55.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.84

PHI: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	24	19	5	79.2%	4.01	1	-0.99
PHI	Samuel Ersson	29	26	3	89.7%	2.42	1	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYI at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	0	0.76
1	PHI	13	0	0.92
2	NYI	12	0	0.37
2	PHI	22	0	1.97
3	NYI	22	1	1.28
3	PHI	5	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2