Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

STL: 50.7%

CGY: 49.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.06

CGY: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	29	28	1	96.6%	2.00	0	1.00
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	25	4	86.2%	3.51	1	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • STL at home vs CGY: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	CGY 2 - 1 STL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-11	STL 3 - 2 CGY	STL	STL
2025-10-11	CGY 2 - 4 STL	STL	CGY
2025-01-16	STL 4 - 1 CGY	STL	STL
2025-01-14	STL 2 - 1 CGY	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	23	0	1.24
1	CGY	12	0	0.42
2	STL	13	1	0.92
2	CGY	28	0	1.18
3	STL	11	0	1.35
3	CGY	10	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1