Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 56.3%

MTL: 43.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.20

MTL: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	21	3	87.5%	4.29	4	1.29
MTL	Jakub Dobes	33	32	1	97.0%	3.43	2	2.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DAL at home vs MTL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	MTL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	1	0.90
1	MTL	23	2	1.81
2	DAL	22	1	1.56
2	MTL	11	0	1.07
3	DAL	18	0	0.97
3	MTL	7	2	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9