Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

DAL: 49.8%

MTL: 50.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.79

MTL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs MTL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	1	0.90
1	MTL	23	2	1.81
2	DAL	22	1	1.56
2	MTL	11	0	1.07
3	DAL	18	0	0.97
3	MTL	7	2	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2