Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2025-01-16 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 60.0%
MTL: 40.0%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.22
MTL: 2.54
Total Goals
Median: 4.7
Over 5.5: 37%
Over 6.5: 24%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | DAL | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.916 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.857 | 0.615 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DAL at home vs MTL: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | DAL 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | DAL |
| 2025-11-13 | MTL 0 - 7 DAL | DAL | MTL |
| 2025-01-16 | DAL 1 - 3 MTL | MTL | DAL |
| 2025-01-11 | MTL 1 - 2 DAL | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-02-10 | MTL 2 - 3 DAL | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:50 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:37 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:15 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:43 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.2 - 2.5
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