Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 55.8%

EDM: 44.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.88

EDM: 3.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • COL at home vs EDM: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	8	0	0.89
1	EDM	15	1	1.03
2	COL	11	0	0.70
2	EDM	21	2	1.98
3	COL	18	0	0.97
3	EDM	8	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.9