Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-01-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BUF: 47.9%

PIT: 52.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.33

PIT: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.68
1	PIT	13	0	0.55
2	BUF	23	0	1.59
2	PIT	13	0	0.88
3	BUF	27	2	2.02
3	PIT	7	2	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1