Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

COL: 55.5%

DAL: 44.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.27

DAL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	29	26	3	89.7%	2.93	1	-0.07
DAL	Casey DeSmith	36	30	6	83.3%	3.42	2	-2.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	COL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	21	1	1.04
1	DAL	13	0	0.42
2	COL	23	1	1.66
2	DAL	19	1	1.73
3	COL	11	0	0.72
3	DAL	16	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9