Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-01-18 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 51.3%
TOR: 48.7%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.33
TOR: 3.04
Total Goals
Median: 7.2
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 62%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | MTL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.940 | 0.895 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | MTL 3 - 1 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-12-06 | TOR 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-11-22 | MTL 5 - 2 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-08 | TOR 5 - 2 MTL | TOR | MTL |
| 2025-04-12 | TOR 1 - 0 MTL | TOR | TOR |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0
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