Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

MTL: 49.8%

TOR: 50.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.07

TOR: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	1	1.61
1	TOR	12	0	0.38
2	MTL	18	1	1.30
2	TOR	22	0	1.20
3	MTL	16	1	1.20
3	TOR	15	6	2.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3