Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 51.6%

TOR: 48.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.13

TOR: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	34	27	7	79.4%	3.92	6	-3.08
TOR	Joseph Woll	35	32	3	91.4%	4.12	3	1.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TOR
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	1	1.61
1	TOR	12	0	0.38
2	MTL	18	1	1.30
2	TOR	22	0	1.20
3	MTL	16	1	1.20
3	TOR	15	6	2.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0