Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TBL: 63.6%

DET: 36.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.62

DET: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 38%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	2	0.59
1	DET	21	0	1.31
2	TBL	13	2	1.56
2	DET	17	0	0.95
3	TBL	10	1	0.80
3	DET	15	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7