Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

WSH: 67.7%

PIT: 32.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.50

PIT: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • WSH at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.46
1	PIT	15	0	0.68
2	WSH	14	2	1.18
2	PIT	11	0	0.74
3	WSH	15	4	2.57
3	PIT	12	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8