Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-01-18 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

WSH: 65.3%

PIT: 34.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.41

PIT: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

PIT

J. Blomqvist

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	19	18	1	94.7%	2.28	0	1.28
PIT	J. Blomqvist	32	28	4	87.5%	4.21	6	0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • WSH at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	PIT
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.46
1	PIT	15	0	0.68
2	WSH	14	2	1.18
2	PIT	11	0	0.74
3	WSH	15	4	2.57
3	PIT	12	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7